In a previous blog post we examined the performance of the commercial real estate market in some major US cities. This is the second article in this series, which uses data from late 2020 and early 2021 to examine vacancy and supply rates in cities such as Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta and Houston. These statistics illustrate the impact of COVID-19 on the commercial property rental market, as well as the types of properties that are holding strong in the face of negative trends.

Los Angeles

Los Angeles is a hub for creative, media, and entertainment companies, many of which are office-based. The city’s proximity to major cargo ports makes it convenient for logistics and distribution businesses, both of which have kept the industrial real estate market strong.

Offices

•  Vacancy rates in downtown Los Angeles are 21.5%.
•  In Q4 20202, there was more than 5.5 million square feet for vacant space, with 3.4 million feet being in the Financial District.
•  The majority of vacant inventory involves Class A offices.
•  Supply increased by more than 2 million square feet in the past 12 months.
•  No new supply is expected to enter the market as no projects are currently under construction in the CBD area.
•  Vacancy rates average 22.5% outside of the CBD, however, they reach 56% in the Fashion District.
•  Vacancy rates are just under 18% in the Greater Los Angeles area.

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With a market size of nearly $900bn, the United States has one of the world’s largest commercial real estate markets, coupled with some of the most desirable business locations to match. This post serves as the first part of our examination into the US market’s performance based on data from Q4 2020 and Q1 2021.

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Commercial real estate was one of the hardest hit sectors following the coronavirus outbreak in 2020. The pandemic and the measures taken to curb its spread brought significant changes to office-based workplaces, driving a sharp and sudden increase in remote work practices. The most immediate consequence of this shift was a softening in rental activity due to the decreased need for physical office space in the short-term. As a result, 2020 ended with a marked decline in take-up volume and an increase in office vacancy rates across the nation.

The United States office rental market entered the new year in a scenario marked by declining rental rates and compromised fundamentals. As we move further into 2021, these trends are likely to remain in place and some markets may begin to feel the full impact of the economic crisis, whereas others will prove more resilient.

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The United States office market is characterized by its wide range of properties, ranging from affordable shared spaces to expensive trophy offices in some of the world’s most desirable business locations. In mid-2020, average gross rates for offices nationwide stood at $35 per square foot with the priciest offices located in New York and California. Within these states, the sub-markets commanding the highest rates are:

•   New York: Midtown Manhattan at $87 per square foot, specifically in Chelsea, the Plaza District, and Gramercy Park.
•   California: The Shoreline/Mountain View area, in which prices reach $130 per square foot, followed by Santa Monica and the SoMa district of San Francisco.

Average asking rates in other prime office markets are as follows:

•   Seattle: $70 per square foot, higher in Lake Union and the CBD.
•   Washington DC: $55 per square foot.
•   Cambridge and Boston: $40 and $80 per square foot, respectively.
•   Los Angeles: Averaging $45 per square foot.
•   Chicago: Exceeding $40 per square foot in the West Loop.
•   Raleigh-Durham: $35 per square foot for CBD properties.

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An updated version of this post can be found by clicking here.

The United States is home to one of the world’s largest commercial real estate markets, with an estimated worth of approximately $950bn. In terms of size, industrial space is the largest sub-market with 21bn square feet, followed by retail with 13bn, and offices, which account for 11bn.

In Q2 2020, the average price per square foot for US offices was just over $35. Retail averaged out to $18.09 / square foot, and industrial space came in at just under $8 / square foot. However, there are significant variations in average prices based on location and real estate class. Here is a summary of average commercial rates in key USA cities:

•   New York: Average gross rates for metro New York offices are $81 / sq ft / year. Industrial space averages $19 / sq ft / year.
•   Los Angeles: $44 / sq ft / year for offices in the metropolitan area and $11 / sq ft / year for industrial premises.
•   Miami: In the same range as Los Angeles for CBD offices and slightly lower for industrial space ($8 / sq ft / year).
•   Boston: $39/ sq ft / year for metro offices, rising to $80 in Cambridge. Industrial properties average $10 / sq ft / year.
•   Philadelphia: $36 / sq ft / year for city center offices, $27 for suburban space, and $6 / sq ft / year for industrial properties.
•   Atlanta: Slightly under $30 / sq ft / year for offices with a rate of $35 in Downtown Atlanta. Industrial space is charged at an average of $5 / sq ft / year.
•   Chicago: Approximately $33 / sq ft / year for office space, rising to averages above $40 in The Loop. Industrial premises average $6 / sq ft / year.
•   Dallas and other urban centers in Texas: between $25 and $30 / sq ft / year, whereas industrial rates are below $5.

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Los Angeles County is home to the nation’s second largest metropolitan area and to one of the world’s most powerful economies. The county is made up of 88 cities and has approximately 300,000 employers, which provide jobs to a workforce of nearly 5 million people.

Major Industries and Employers in Los Angeles County

Key industries include entertainment and media due to the presence of highly successful companies like Walt Disney, Warner Bros, and Paramount Pictures. Trade is also a strong economic driver due to the location of the Port of Los Angeles, situated in the southern part of the county, which is one of the state’s largest employers with over 800,000 employees.

Education and healthcare have been paramount to the local economy since the mid 20th century, as the county is home to prestigious institutions that include the University of California, California Institute of Technology, and Loyola Law School, as well as to healthcare corporations like CareMore, Health Net, and Molina Healthcare.

Other sectors worth mentioning include pharma, fashion, hospitality, tourism, financial services, and publishing. Tech-related activities have grown fast and now employ nearly 400,000 people, but the creative industry is by far the sector with the highest growth rates, supporting more than 740,000 jobs.

Key employers include CBRE, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, Snapchat, and Universal Pictures (Los Angeles), Walt Disney (Burbank), Riot Games and Hulu (Santa Monica), Toyota and Honda (Torrance), Isuzu Motors (Cerritos), and Avery Dennison (Glendale).   Read the rest of this entry »

Louisville is a mid-sized urban center in Boulder County with a population of approximately 20,000 people. The city has a central location within Colorado and is within easy reach of other major cities, with Denver only a 30-minute drive away and Boulder just 10 minutes to the west.

Key Industries and Employers in Louisville, Colorado

Key industries in Louisville include education, real estate, healthcare services, retail, trade, transportation, finance, and leisure. The city’s industry base is reflected in the list of main employers, which are Avista Adventist Hospital (with nearly 700 employees), telecommunications firm Zayo Group, the Sierra Nevada Space Corporation, the City of Louisville, Fresca Foods, Balfour Senior Living, and technology solutions company Medtronic.

The labor market in Louisville generally evidences low unemployment levels, which at an average of around 3.5 percent are well below the national average. The number of college graduates is above the US average, standing at nearly 70 percent (compared to 28 percent US-wide), and 35 percent of Louisville residents have a graduate degree. Self-employment levels are 18 percent higher than those in the Denver – Aurora metropolitan area. Read the rest of this entry »

Overview of USA Office Market

During 2016, the USA office market was marked by a climate of cautious optimism and moderate growth across the board. This was mostly evident in office rental rates, which increased by a modest 0.1 per cent or even declined in cities like Chicago, New York, Washington and San Francisco. This was coupled with a slow-down in leasing activity, as net absorption rates only reached 6.5 million square feet during the last quarter of 2016. The bulk of lease transactions consisted of small and medium-sized office properties, and the total number of leases exceeding 500,000 dropped by 43 per cent.

Key market indicators (such as take-up, vacancy, and availability rates) were linked to the performance of those industry sectors that make up for the bulk of office occupiers in the USA. 2016 saw a tightening of the labor market in the tech sector, driving vacancy rates down to break the 10 per cent barrier for the first time. This offset the relative stagnation in activity coming from occupiers involved in financial services, legal, and government.

Important figures that reveal the market’s performance during 2016 included:

– A total inventory in excess of 137 million square feet

– Total vacancy rates of 16.9 per cent

– Annual net absorption above 1.1 million square feet

– Nationwide average asking rates $23.91

– Office space under construction 4.9 million square feet, of which 53.7 per cent is already pre-leased

USA Office Market by City

Mid-sized markets were among the best performers in the year that has just ended. Portland, Nashville, Salt Lake City, and San Antonio were characterized by occupancy increases that averaged 3 per cent. In San Francisco, market indicators were also positive despite the fact that occupancy growth levels dropped from 2.9 to 1.1 per cent. Other regional office markets that did well included Austin, Silicon Valley, and Seattle. In these markets, occupancy growth averaged 2 per cent. Read the rest of this entry »

Bolstered by a robust economic performance, the office market in Washington DC delivered a fine performance throughout 2015. Unemployment levels in the DC metropolitan area were at their lowest since 2008, reaching figures well below the US national average (4.3 per cent vs 5 per cent). These conditions have helped shape a real estate market that is predominantly favourable to landlords, as the following trends demonstrate:

Washington DC Office Market: 2015 Key Facts & Figures

During 2015, vacancy rates for all types of office space in Washington went down to 10.5 per cent, pretty much in line with the city’s historical average of 10.7 per cent. At the same time, net absorption levels increased by a staggering 185 per cent, going from 198,000 square feet in 2014 to 398,000 by December 2015. Nearly half of the transactions involved office stock in Washington’s CBD, which clearly outperformed all other sub-markets. This is attributed to the ongoing influx of new tenants relocating from secondary office locations into the CBD. This trend began to be evident in 2014 and has been solidified over the past 12 months. Read the rest of this entry »